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🧠 Reasoning: Paxton is the right side here because the structure of the Texas GOP primary favours him, not because of day-to-day noise. Recent likely-voter polling and aggregates still have him leading or effectively tied for first, and crucially ahead of Cornyn in head-to-head scenarios, which matters given runoff dynamics. This is a MAGA-leaning electorate where Cornyn's establishment profile is a liability, while Paxton has dominant statewide name ID and clear alignment with the party's base. Cornyn's fundraising advantage is real, but Texas GOP primaries have repeatedly shown that money doesn't override ideological alignment when the base is energised. With Wesley Hunt pulling more from Cornyn's lane than Paxton's, the most likely outcome remains Paxton finishing top and winning the consolidation phase.